多点源交叉波束干涉效应特征分析

介绍多点源交叉波束通过干涉效应实现交汇空间功率合成的基本原理,根据空间功率合成机理,建立对功率合成效率、同相叠加点间距的计算机仿真,完成多点源交叉波束干涉效应特征分析,以此作为多点源交叉波束空间功率合成的评估依据。     

基于向量皮尔森相关系数的组合赋权法

针对多属性决策中属性权重的确定问题,提出了一种基于皮尔森相关系数的主、客观权重的集成方法。用权向量的相关度作为不同赋权方法重要性的度量,意义明确,计算简单,可操作性强。最后采用算例验证了此方法的有效性和实用性。     

空域频域不确定条件下电磁探测卫星规划方法研究

电磁探测卫星对区域目标的覆盖搜索在反恐及海上搜救等领域发挥着重要作用.针对电磁探测卫星区域搜索任务中存在的空域频域不确定性,构建了电磁探测卫星区域搜索问题(EDSASP)中不确定因素的量化描述模型及决策要素模型,提出了基于贝叶斯决策的电磁卫星任务规划方法,并以信息探测收益和前端截获收益为优化目标,建立了空域频域不确定条...     

Predictability of operational processes over finite horizon

Operational processes are usually studied in terms of stochastic processes. The main information measure used for predictability of stochastic processes is the entropy rate, which is asymptotic conditional entropy, thus not suitable for application over a finite horizon. We use the conditional entropy to study the predictability of stochastic processes over the finite horizon. It is well‐known that the conditional entropies of stationary processes decrease as the processes evolve, implying that, on average, their pasts become more informative about prediction of their future outcomes. Some important operational processes such as martingale, models for maintenance policies, nonhomogeneous Poisson, and mixed Poisson processes are nonstationary. We show that as a nonstationary process evolves, it may provide more information or less information about the future state of the system. We develop results for comparing the predictability of stochastic processes. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011     

灰色神经网络的鱼雷经济寿命预测

为减少军费开支、降低鱼雷全寿命费用,从经济性角度提出了鱼雷最佳服役年限模型。利用灰色等维新息GM(1,1)模型对鱼雷年度使用维修费用进行预测;采用分组的思想将原始数据分为多组,采用神经网络对灰色模型的预测残差进行修正,以提高预测精度。通过实际算例预测了鱼雷经济寿命,从而证明了模型的实际应用价值。     

教、训、战一体化教学训练方式探析

上海公安教育坚持＂实战为主导、实训为主线、实用为主旨＂的理念,强化顶层设计,实施＂四个交融＂,科学组织实施,开创了以民警岗位能力为目标,＂教、训、战＂一体的第二专科教学训练方式。     

A note on the forecast performance of temporal aggregation

Earlier research on the effects of nonoverlapping temporal aggregation on demand forecasting showed the benefits associated with such an approach under a stationary AR(1) or MA(1) processes for decision making conducted at the disaggregate level. The first objective of this note is to extend those important results by considering a more general underlying demand process. The second objective is to assess the conditions under which aggregation may be a preferable approach for improving decision making at the aggregate level as well. We confirm the validity of previous results under more general conditions, and we show the increased benefit resulting from forecasting by temporal aggregation at lower frequency time units. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 489–500, 2014     

基于贝叶斯网络的武器装备可靠性分析

针对复杂系统,尤其是国外进口武器装备可靠性判断的局限性,研究了一种基于贝叶斯网络的可靠性评估方法。结合系统连接逻辑与贝叶斯网络的映射关系建立了可靠性评估模型,并用该方法对机载吊舱和航空动力系统的可靠性进行了分析。结果表明,该方法不仅能够快速计算系统的可靠度,确定出某一组件(部件)对系统可靠性的影响程度,而且可以为其他进口装备的分析提供参考。     

复合假设下导弹可靠性指标Bayes检验方法

在用Bayes方法对海防战术导弹可靠性指标进行假设检验时,原假设和对立假设均采用简单假设的形式,而此种方法可能导致使用方Bayes风险增大。从理论上阐述了简单假设Bayes检验方法可能导致使用方Bayes风险增大的原因,同时给出了用于取代简单假设的复合假设Bayes检验方法,并用实例证明了它比简单假设Bayes检验方法科学、合理。     

基于MADM组合赋权的防空武器系统机动能力评估

针对防空武器系统机动能力评估问题不确定多属性决策的特点,提出一种基于MADM组合赋权的武器系统机动能力评估方法。构建了防空武器系统机动能力评估指标体系,给出了指标权重不相容情况下如何寻找并剔除疵点权重的方法。在此基础上,建立了一种基于区间估计解决武器系统机动能力评估问题的数学模型。最后通过实例分析验证,该方法评估结果准确,能有效减小误差,对指挥员科学决策具有一定的参考价值。